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By Jeff Mason

MOSCOW (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will press Russia on Tuesday to back sanctions against Iran if international talks over Tehran's nuclear program fail.

Afghanistan, missile defense, and a nuclear arms reduction treaty are also expected to feature prominently in meetings Clinton holds with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

The top U.S. diplomat is finishing a European tour with a two-day visit to Russia, highlighting Washington's desire to reset ties with the Kremlin.

President Barack Obama's decision to revamp Bush-era plans, opposed by Moscow, for a missile defense shield in eastern Europe has helped improve U.S.-Russia relations.

The White House insists no quid pro quo was expected for that move, but analysts say the United States hopes Russian cooperation on a mix of foreign policy issues will increase.

Clinton needs Russian support for a U.S. push to impose sanctions on Iran if talks between six powers and Tehran over its nuclear plans end without resolution.

"The secretary will want to speak to Foreign Minister Lavrov and President Medvedev about what specific forms of pressure Russia would be prepared to join us and our other allies in if Iran fails to live up to its obligations," a senior State Department official told reporters on Monday.

Iran agreed at a meeting with six world powers in Geneva on October 1 to allow U.N. experts access to a newly disclosed uranium enrichment plant near the city of Qom.

Officials called the talks constructive, but Clinton warned on Sunday the world would not wait forever for Iran to prove it was not building nuclear bombs.

Russia has been traditionally reluctant to impose sanctions on Iran, but Medvedev signaled openness with recent comments in New York that sanctions were sometimes inevitable.

"For the Russian president to say that sometimes they're inevitable underscores what we believe," the official said.

Like Washington, Russia formally rejects any linkage between Iran and an anti-missile shield. But most analysts say Moscow is likely to use Iran as a bargaining chip.

Ahead of talks with Clinton, Lavrov said he wanted to discuss with her new U.S. plans for an anti-missile shield, redrawn on Obama's orders.

Some Russian officials, including Moscow's ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin, have suggested Obama's new missile shield plan involving sea-based and mobile missiles could pose an even stronger security threat.

Russian officials have said Moscow's concerns would be finally lifted only if it became an equal partner in any European anti-missile system.

ARMS CONTROL TALKS

Clinton and Lavrov will seek to inject momentum into talks to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which expires on December 5. Obama and Medvedev agreed on the outlines of a deal in July, but several hurdles may make it difficult to finish by the December deadline.

The two foreign ministers will also discuss a commission they are coordinating that covers issues such as arms control, energy, fighting terrorism and drug trafficking, and boosting business and scientific links.

Issues that divide the two nations may arise. Clinton will address human rights and Russia's treatment of Georgia, with which it fought a five-day war last year.

Lavrov and Medvedev may seek specifics about the U.S. review of its Afghanistan strategy and clarification about comments attributed to a U.S. defense official that Washington planned to put radar stations in Ukraine.

The United States denied such plans, and the senior State Department official said the defense official was misquoted.

(Editing by Charles Dick)

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy's recovery, according to a survey released on Monday.

The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association for Business Economics, also known as the NABE, found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.

"The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said.

"The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

Recessions in the United States are dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The private-sector group, which does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, often takes months to make determinations.

The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s. It was triggered by the U.S. housing market's collapse and the ensuing global credit crisis.

While the economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter, analysts believe that ordinary Americans will probably not see much difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010, restraining consumption.

"We don't necessarily expect the U.S. economy to fall into a double-dip recession. This time round, consumers will be reluctant to join the party," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicted real GDP growth expanding at an annual pace of 2.9 percent over the second half of this year. Output for all of 2009 is expected to contract 2.5 percent and next year, rebound 2.6 percent.

Much of the anticipated recovery was seen driven by businesses rebuilding their inventories after aggressively reducing unwanted stockpiles of unsold goods to match weak demand.

HOUSING PRICES TO HIT BOTTOM

Investment in the residential market would also add to growth, with the majority of the survey's respondents convinced that the housing market downturn, which has lasted more than three years, was close to coming to an end.

About two-thirds of respondents believed house prices will reach a bottom this year. The survey found that high house prices would not pose a threat to the sector's recovery.

The survey predicted that the unemployment rate will rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of that year. The labor market was not expected to regain most of the jobs destroyed in the recession until 2012 or beyond.

The weak labor market will continue to weigh on consumer spending, slowing the recovery. The jobless rate climbed to 9.8 percent in September -- a 26-year high -- from August's 9.7 percent.

Labor market slack, combined with weak wage growth, meant inflation would not be an obstacle to the economic recovery and the Federal Reserve will not be under pressure to raise interest rates, the survey found.

"With improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," Reaser said.

The U.S. central bank was seen leaving its overnight benchmark lending rate near zero until late next spring, followed by measured increases that would take the rate to 1 percent by the end of 2010, the survey showed.

Despite signs of improvement in the financial markets, most respondents believed that it would take some time for them to return to normal. Only 29 percent believed this would happen in the second half of next year.

Respondents also expected the U.S. dollar to weaken further this year and into 2010, but did not see this contributing to a narrowing of the country's trade deficit as the economic revival stimulates demand for imports.

The dollar has lost about 5.8 percent of its value against a basket of currencies so far this year, largely because of worries over the government's growing budget deficit and expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates at super-low levels for a while.

(Editing by Jan Paschal)

By Steve Holland and David Alexander

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House on Monday blasted a report from the health insurance industry that said Senate healthcare legislation would lead to increases in annual insurance premiums of as much as $4,000 by 2019.

The report for the industry trade group America's Health Insurance Plans represented a shot across the bow at Democratic plans to overhaul the $2.5 trillion healthcare system as President Barack Obama has been gaining momentum on the issue.

A top goal of Obama in seeking to revamp healthcare is to rein in costs that have soared in recent decades. The report, prepared by consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers and posted on the industry group's website over the weekend, said costs would increase for Americans rather than decline.

"Health reform could have a significant impact on the cost of private health insurance coverage," the report concluded.

The report's release comes as the Senate Finance Committee plans to vote on Tuesday on its healthcare bill after budget analysts gave it a rosy report card, saying it would meet Obama's goal of reducing the budget deficit over 10 years.

A Finance Committee aide called the report "blatantly false and misleading."

The finance panel bill calls for sweeping insurance market reforms, requires most individuals to obtain medical policies and provides tax subsidies to help people afford coverage. The bill also would tax high-cost insurance plans and would place a $500,000 limit on the amount of executive pay that health insurance companies could deduct from taxable income.

The insurance industry group, which represents Aetna Inc, Cigna Corp, UnitedHealth Group Inc, WellPoint Inc and others, defended the report, saying lawmakers have abandoned any effort to slow healthcare costs.

Instead, the bill looks to raise money from insurance companies and, ultimately consumers and employers, to help pay for healthcare costs that outpace wages each year, the group's president Karen Ignagni told reporters.

"Because we don't see comprehensive cost control in any piece of legislation, we're looking at continuing those projected 6.2 percentage point increases ... I think it's time to bring that back," she said.

A spokesman for Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus said the report "excludes all the provisions that will actually lower the cost of coverage," including tax credits and an increased enrollment.

The Obama White House had sought to work with the industry but the report was a clear indication that this strategy was no longer operative. It has brokered deals with drugmakers and hospitals, but no such deal has been struck with insurers.

"This is a self-serving analysis from the insurance industry, one of the major opponents of health insurance reform," White House spokesman Reid Cherlin said. "It comes on the eve of a vote that will reduce the industry's profits. It is hard to take it seriously," he added.

Ignagni, asked about whether the group was changing tactics, said its strategy is consistent and that the group was committed to working with Congress to pass reforms.

But she added that other sectors need to play a greater role in reducing healthcare spending rather than imposing taxes and fees.

"We need now to have a broader discussion about how all the other stakeholders fit into this ... conversation," she said.

HIGHER COSTS?

The industry group's report identifies four key factors in the Senate Finance Committee bill it says will drive up the cost of health insurance premiums, including a weak mandate that could result in many young people opting not to buy insurance.

A weak mandate coupled with measures preventing insurers from barring people with pre-existing conditions will fuel rapidly rising costs, as will other factors like taxes on high-cost healthcare plans and new taxes on some healthcare sectors, the report said.

A family of four under current law could expect to pay $15,500 by 2013, but that would rise to $17,200 if the new measures were adopted, the report found. The cost would be $21,900 by 2019 under the current system or $25,900 if the changes are implemented, it said.

"Efforts to increase coverage and promote quality could lead to a more efficient healthcare sector, but they could also lead to increased growth in costs if implemented without a full appreciation of the downstream impact on cost of health insurance coverage," the report said.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office last week put the cost at $829 billion, below Obama's $900 billion goal.

Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said the industry group's report should not be ignored.

"Higher premiums, higher taxes, and more government -- that's not reform. But that's precisely what the American people, the Congressional Budget Office and now outside experts have identified with this $1 trillion experiment that cuts Medicare, raises taxes and premiums, and threatens the health care options that millions of Americans enjoy."

A number of consumer advocacy groups that back reform echoed the White House's criticism, calling the report a scare tactic meant to derail Tuesday's Senate vote. They also pointed to insurers as a main driver in ratcheting up healthcare costs over the years.

Recent data shows premiums for health plans sponsored by employers, who provide coverage for most non-elderly adults with insurance, have more than doubled in the last decade.

"The insurance lobby now claims that health care reform will cause significant premium increases, conveniently forgetting that they imposed significant premium increases during the past decade that are making health coverage unaffordable for families and businesses," said Ron Pollack, head of the consumer health group Families USA.

(Additional reporting by Donna Smith and Susan Heavey; Editing by Eric Walsh)

By Anna Ringstrom and Nicholas Vinocur

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - A U.S. academic who proved that communities can trump state control and corporations became the first woman to win the Nobel prize in economics on Monday, sharing it with an expert on how companies make decisions whose work could influence post-crisis regulation.

Elinor Ostrom of Indiana University defied conventional wisdom with studies that showed that user-managed properties -- such as community fish stocks or woodland areas -- more often than not were better run than standard theories predicted.

University of California, Berkeley economist Oliver Williamson, the other winner, looked at how incentives within companies, government and other organizations affect decisions, adding human dimensions such as social norms to a field often thought of in terms of a hypothetical perfect market.

The two will share the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences award of 10 million Swedish crown ($1.4 million) prize.

Before Ostrom, the previously accepted view was that common property was poorly managed and should be either regulated centrally or privatized.

"Since we have found that bureaucrats sometimes do not have the correct information while citizens and users of resources do, we hope it helps encourage a sense of capacity and power," Ostrom told a news conference via telephone.

After a week of Nobel drama that included the gasp-inducing selection of U.S. President Barack Obama for the peace prize, the economics category risked being an anti-climax.

But the choice of a woman for a prize in a field dominated by men added a final twist to this year's awards, showing again the Nobel committees' penchant for springing surprises.

"There are many, many people who have struggled mightily and to be chosen for this prize is a great honor and I'm still a little bit in shock," Ostrom, a professor in political science, told the news conference.

MONGOLIAN GRASSLANDS

Studies of how organizations function may sound dry but the examples that pepper Ostrom's work are anything but. A colorful case in point: grasslands in Mongolia, China and Russia.

When China and Russia imposed agricultural collectives, the grasslands became more heavily degraded than in Mongolia, where nomads moved herds with the seasons. When China later privatized

some grasslands the land became even more degraded.

"Both socialism and privatization are associated with worse long-term outcomes than those observed in traditional group-based governance," the academy noted.

The academy said Ostrom and Williamson helped explain that economic analysis can shed light on most forms of social organization.

"Economic transactions take place not only in markets, but also within firms, associations, households, and agencies," it said, adding that economic theory delved deeply into markets but had not sufficiently explored this huge area of activity.

Ostrom, 76, whose work was partly inspired by Williamson, gathered her most important research in a 1990 book called "Governing the Commons: the Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action."

Williamson did much of his key work in the 1970s. He showed how hierarchical organizations could thrive because they were effective at resolving conflicts and in some ways were more efficient than market-based systems.

But he also argued that problems could emerge when executive authority was abused, making such systems less productive.

UC Berkeley economist George Akerlof, who won the Nobel prize in 2001, said Williamson's work helped people understand daily life in organizations from kindergarten on up and also was seminal for understanding the recent financial crisis and creating new regulation.

"A lot of the problem was in organizations; they were giving people the wrong incentives. If people had thought about those incentives through Olly's eyes, and what was actually being done, we would have known that this crisis was going to occur and why," Akerlof told Reuters.

Williamson, who said the possibility of bagging a Nobel always came to mind at this time of the year, called himself "a lucky guy."

He woke at about 2:30 a.m. and wanted to get back to sleep. An hour later the phone rang and his son answered, telling Williamson, "I think this is the call."

Speaking to Reuters, the 77-year-old economist said organizational theory was becoming more vibrant and offered tools to fight future crises by looking within organizations.

"Are there relationships between the Fed and the banking sector, on which it has such a significant influence, that haven't been thought through as fully as they might in organizational terms?" he asked.

The economics prize, officially called the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was established in 1968. It is not part of the original group of awards set out in dynamite tycoon Nobel's 1895 will.

($1=7.037 Swedish Crown)

(Additional reporting by Peter Henderson in San Francisco and Adam Cox in Stockholm; Editing by Alison Williams and Cynthia Osterman)

By Patricia Zengerle

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration has helped pull the U.S. economy back from the "abyss" with aggressive efforts to spur growth and stabilize financial markets, a top White House adviser said on Monday.

Defending policies that Republicans have attacked as ineffective, National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued measures put in place by the administration, including a $787 billion stimulus package, had helped turn back the deepest U.S. recession since the Great Depression.

"Thanks largely to the Recovery Act, alongside an aggressive financial stabilization plan and a program to keep responsible homeowners in their homes, we have walked a substantial distance back from the economic abyss and are on the path toward economic recovery," Summers wrote to House Republican leader John Boehner.

Obama is facing rising clamor to take new steps to lift the economy and jump-start job growth as the U.S. unemployment rate edges toward 10 percent.

The bleak jobs picture, and soaring fiscal deficits that reflect the cost of battling the recession, could put some of Obama's Democratic allies at risk in next year's congressional elections, unless voters are convinced they are doing all they can to help the economy.

"Every American is asking this administration: Where are the jobs?" Boehner said in a statement. The Ohio Republican noted the economy had lost roughly 3 million jobs since Congress had approved the stimulus package in mid-February.

Responding to a letter Boehner had sent Obama, Summers pointed to a slowing pace of job losses as evidence that the administration's policies were working. "We have seen a substantial change in the trend of job loss," he said.

The U.S. economy lost jobs at a monthly average rate of 256,000 in the third quarter of this year, which Summers termed "unacceptably high." But he noted it was nearly a third of the 691,000 jobs per month lost in the first quarter.

Rising joblessness poses a dilemma for Obama and his fellow Democrats. Republicans are pushing for additional tax cuts as the solution for the country's economic woes.

Speaking to a group of business economists in St. Louis, Summers said there was no higher economic priority than maximizing economic growth and job creation.

But he warned that heavy job losses "cast a substantial shadow forward" and the economy still faced a tough slog.

"We need to recognize that lack of demand will be a major constraint on output and employment in the American economy for the foreseeable future," he told the National Association for Business Economics.

Economists surveyed by the group expect the jobless rate to top out at 10 percent early next year before falling.

In a nod to concerns about the large federal deficit, inflation and the value of the U.S. dollar, he cautioned against simply throwing piles of public money at the economic problems without considering the longer-term consequences.

"No actions to combat short-term output gaps must be taken that call into question our commitment to sound money and noninflationary growth."

TOUTING OBAMA PLAN, BLAMING REPUBLICANS

Summers told Boehner that private forecasters have estimated that the stimulus program added 3 percentage points to second quarter GDP, tempering what would have been an even deeper economic swoon.

He also said they believe the unemployment rate would be 2 percentage points lower by the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus plan.

Most forecasters estimate the economy resumed growth in the third quarter, although some still worry about the risk of a "double dip" recession in which the recovery stalls.

Summers took note of the improvement in U.S. stock market performance since early this year and of recent data suggesting the housing market, which was central to the financial market collapse, was stabilizing.

Hitting back at Republicans who are trying to lay blame on Obama for a record U.S. budget deficit, Summers said Obama inherited a deficit well in excess of $1 trillion when he took office. He said the policies of Obama's Republican predecessor, former President George W. Bush, led to the shortfall.

"The bipartisan commitment to fiscal discipline that existed during the 1990s evaporated during the 2000s. Every major policy enacted during this period violated the principle of paying for new proposals," Summers wrote.

(Additional reporting by Emily Kaiser in St. Louis and Caren Bohan in Washington; Editing by Eric Walsh and Cynthia Osterman)

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